Match report →
Sunderland – Arsenal0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
0.84
Total xG
2.15
Arsenal
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Trai Hume on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Arsenal's outstanding defense (0.71 goals conceded on average) faces Sunderland's moderate offense
- Arsenal averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, putting high pressure on opponents
- The mathematical model predicts a clear trend towards an away win with a probability of 46%
Risks
- Arsenal arrive with only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could cause fatigue
- The absence of W. Saliba weakens Arsenal's defense and reduces their usual starting XI strength to 86%
- Sunderland are defensively stable at home, conceding only 0.87 goals per home game on average
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland22%
Draw32%
Arsenal46%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw54%
Arsenal or draw78%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
14%
0:0
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Arsenal: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Sunderland: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- Arsenal: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Sunderland: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 5 D. Ballard
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 12 T. Meunier
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 7 C. Talbi
- 18 W. Isidor
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 32 T. Hume
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 11 C. Rigg
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 12 J. Timber
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
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