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Premier League

Sunderland - Arsenal

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Sunderland
0.8
Total xG
2.1
Arsenal
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

14%

0:0

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SUNARS

Sunderland

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.12
Trai Hume on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.64
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average)
-0.14
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.04
25% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)

  • 3
    Sunderland: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

  • 4
    Arsenal: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Sunderland: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 6
    Arsenal: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

32%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Arsenal's outstanding defense (0.71 goals conceded on average) faces Sunderland's moderate offense
  • Arsenal averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, putting high pressure on opponents
  • The mathematical model predicts a clear trend towards an away win with a probability of 46%
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal arrive with only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could cause fatigue
  • The absence of W. Saliba weakens Arsenal's defense and reduces their usual starting XI strength to 86%
  • Sunderland are defensively stable at home, conceding only 0.87 goals per home game on average
Overview

Sunderland host Arsenal at the Stadium of Light

Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 8:00 PM

Sunderland currently sit in 12th place with 4 points

Arsenal travel as league runners-up with a perfect 9 points

A clear favorite role for the visiting team

Form

Sunderland show a form of WWLWD

Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Brentford

Arsenal are in excellent shape with 4 consecutive wins and an overall form of DWWWW

The Gunners won their last match 1-0 against Napoli

Statistics

Sunderland average 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game

Arsenal have a highly stable defense, conceding only 0.71 goals per game

The Gunners score an average of 1.87 goals per match

Sunderland are defensively stronger at home, conceding only 0.87 goals on average

Head-to-Head

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won once and there was one draw

The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Arsenal

Sunderland scored 2 goals in these matches, while Arsenal scored 5 times

Key Players

Enzo Le Fée is in great form with a recent rating of 7.61 and 2 goals in 5 games

Nilson Angulo shows a rising trend with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Granit Xhaka stabilizes the midfield with a season rating of 7.13

Bukayo Saka shines for Arsenal with 5 goals in his last 5 games and a rating of 7.66

Martin Ødegaard recently recorded 3 goals and 1 assist with a strong rating of 7.82

Declan Rice impresses in midfield with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Robin Roefs plays in goal for Sunderland with an average rating of 6.94

David Raya guarded the Gunners' goal this season, keeping 19 clean sheets

Roefs kept 11 clean sheets during the current campaign

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Stadium of Light

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.0 goals per game

Only 1 out of 5 matches at the Stadium of Light saw both teams score

Sunderland benefit from a longer recovery period of 7 days

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