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Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.15
Total xG
2.46
Arsenal
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brighton & Hove Albion | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.53 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking trend: Brighton is currently scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.7
- Possession dominance: Brighton averaged 72.2% possession and generated 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis expects a close match with a 69% probability of Arsenal securing points (X2)
Risks
- Limited data quality on weather conditions
- Arsenal's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.8 compared to their season average of 2.1
All probabilities
Result
Brighton & Hove Albion31%
Draw31%
Arsenal38%
Double chance
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw62%
Arsenal or draw69%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
8%
1:0
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Arsenal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/9 games, last 30)
Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 4 P. Struijk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 13 P. Groß
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 23 J. Steele
- 10 G. Rutter
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
- 30 M. Svoboda
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
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