Match report →
AFC Bournemouth – Liverpool0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.69
Total xG
2.89
Liverpool
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Justin Kluivert not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| H. Ekitike not in squad (11 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge with a 48% home win probability combined with Bournemouth's recent 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad
- Bournemouth averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games, while Liverpool averaged 5.2 shots on target
- Liverpool's vulnerable away defense concedes an average of 1.94 goals per game this season
Risks
- Bournemouth have a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Liverpool's historical dominance with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head encounters
- Bournemouth remain winless in this Premier League season with 3 draws and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth47%
Draw27%
Liverpool26%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw74%
Liverpool or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Liverpool: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 11 games (13 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 10 R. Christie
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 24 J. Sánchez Velasco
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 29 D. Jebbison
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 27 A. Tóth
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 2 J. Gomez
- 21 K. Tsimikas
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →