Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Liverpool
09/20/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
AFC Bournemouth
Liverpool
League
The Lab
- 1AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- 2AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 3Liverpool: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
- 4AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 11 games (13 points lost)
- 5AFC Bournemouth: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
27%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Mathematical edge with a 48% home win probability combined with Bournemouth's recent 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad
- Bournemouth averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games, while Liverpool averaged 5.2 shots on target
- Liverpool's vulnerable away defense concedes an average of 1.94 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
- Bournemouth have a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Liverpool's historical dominance with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head encounters
- Bournemouth remain winless in this Premier League season with 3 draws and 1 loss
Overview
AFC Bournemouth host Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium
Premier League match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM
Bournemouth sit in 16th place with 3 points
Liverpool occupy 10th place with 6 points
Both sides aim to climb into the top half of the table
Form
Bournemouth's recent form is LDDDW
Their last match was a 2-1 away victory against Real Sociedad
The overall record shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Liverpool remain unbeaten in their last 5 with a DDWWD run
The Reds recently recorded a 0-0 draw against Fulham
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bournemouth score an average of 1.53 goals per game this season
At home, the hosts concede an average of 1.05 goals
Liverpool average 1.66 goals scored per match overall
On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.94 goals
Both teams scored in 4 out of the last 5 games at the Vitality Stadium
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams
Liverpool lead with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Bournemouth
The goal difference stands at 5:11 in favor of the visitors
The most recent encounter ended in a 3-2 home victory for Bournemouth
Key Players
Marcus Tavernier has 7 season goals with a last-5 rating of 7.50
Evanilson contributed 6 goals and 2 assists this season
Alex Scott shines in midfield with a season rating of 6.99
Alexander Isak scored 3 goals in 14 games with a 6.63 rating
Dominik Szoboszlai registered 6 goals and 7 assists so far
Cody Gakpo recorded 7 goals and 5 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Djordje Petrovic played 38 games this season with a 6.8 rating
Alisson featured in 26 matches with a 6.81 season rating
Bournemouth recorded 11 clean sheets during the season
Liverpool kept 10 clean sheets in this campaign
Influences
Home advantage for Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on grass
The home venue averages 3.0 goals per game historically
The BTTS rate at this stadium stands at 80%
No weather data is available for this match