Match report →
Nottingham Forest – Coventry City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nottingham Forest
1.37
Total xG
2.41
Coventry City
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nottingham Forest | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.39 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.39 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Clear favorites: Nottingham Forest hold a 43% win probability compared to 27% for the visitors
- Coventry's crisis: The visitors have lost all 4 league matches with a 0:10 goal difference
- Home advantage: Forest are expected to score 1.37 goals against a struggling defense
Risks
- Absence of Igor Jesus reduces Forest's offensive threat with only 71% of standard goals share available
- Coventry's desperate hunt for their first goal of the season makes them unpredictable
- Limited data in the dataset regarding Coventry City's player stats
All probabilities
Result
Nottingham Forest43%
Draw30%
Coventry City27%
Double chance
Nottingham Forest or draw73%
Coventry City or draw57%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morgan Gibbs-White: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Nottingham Forest: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 · Coventry City 3-4-2-1
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 2 O. Diomande
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 21 X. Schlager
- 3 N. Williams
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 19 L. Delap
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 16 O. Frank
- 6 M. Grimes
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
Substitutes
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 11 I. da Cruz
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 9 C. Wood
- 49 S. Cherif
- 34 Y. Gboho
- 25 D. Bentley
- 17 L. Tchaouna
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 9 E. Simms
- 38 G. Hamer
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