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Premier League

Nottingham Forest - Coventry City

09/19/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Nottingham Forest
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Coventry City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
NFCC

Nottingham Forest

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Coventry City

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.69
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.39
Declining form (0.8 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.39
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morgan Gibbs-White: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Nottingham Forest: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Clear favorites: Nottingham Forest hold a 43% win probability compared to 27% for the visitors
  • Coventry's crisis: The visitors have lost all 4 league matches with a 0:10 goal difference
  • Home advantage: Forest are expected to score 1.37 goals against a struggling defense
Risk Factors
  • Absence of Igor Jesus reduces Forest's offensive threat with only 71% of standard goals share available
  • Coventry's desperate hunt for their first goal of the season makes them unpredictable
  • Limited data in the dataset regarding Coventry City's player stats
Overview

Nottingham Forest host Coventry City at The City Ground

Premier League clash on September 19, 2026, 5:30 PM

Nottingham Forest sit 11th with 5 points

Coventry City are bottom of the table in 20th place with 0 points

The home side enters as the clear favorites

Form

Nottingham Forest show form of DLDDW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Coventry City have a form of WLLLL with 1 win and 4 consecutive defeats

The visitors are still searching for their first league points of the season

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nottingham Forest average 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded this season

Forest concede an average of 1.44 goals per game at home

Coventry City have scored 0 goals while conceding 10 in the league so far

The mathematical model predicts 1.37 goals for Forest and 1.04 for Coventry

Key Players

Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest's key midfielder with 15 goals and 4 assists

Neco Williams solidifies the defense with a season rating of 6.93

Dan Ndoye has scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Detailed player form statistics are not available for Coventry City

Goalkeepers

Matz Sels starts in goal for Nottingham Forest with a rating of 6.80

Carl Rushworth is in goal for Coventry City

Sels has recorded 9 clean sheets in his season statistics

Influences

The City Ground features a grass pitch which favors the home team

The venue average stands at 2.6 goals per game

The model estimates a 50% probability for both teams to score

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