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Premier League

Everton - Ipswich Town

09/19/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Everton
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Ipswich Town
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
EVEIT

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Merlin Röhl not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Ipswich Town

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.49
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton: 9 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Everton: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')

  • 3
    Everton: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Everton: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 5
    Ipswich Town: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: Everton averaged 43.2% possession and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, playing a counter-oriented style
  • Attacking threat: Ipswich Town scores consistently according to advancedStats, averaging around 1.9 goals per game
  • Prediction advantage: The model calculates a 48% home win probability for Everton with 1.53 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Restricted data availability regarding the current form of the away team players
  • Missing key players: Everton will play without Iliman Ndiaye and Merlin Röhl
  • Vulnerable away defense: Ipswich Town concedes an average of 1.43 goals per away game
Overview

Everton (9th place, 6 points) host Ipswich Town (10th place, 6 points) at the Hill Dickinson Stadium

Premier League match on September 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in mid-table, fighting to climb higher

Form

Everton's overall form is LWDDD with three consecutive draws

Ipswich Town holds a form of WWLLW with a win in their last match

The home team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

The away side registered 3 wins and 2 losses in their recent run

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Everton scored an average of 1.24 goals and conceded 1.32 goals per game this season

Their home record shows an average of 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match

Ipswich Town scored an average of 1.74 goals and conceded 1.02 goals per game

On the road, Ipswich Town conceded an average of 1.43 goals per match

Everton recorded 11 clean sheets this season, while Ipswich Town kept 17 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these two teams

Everton recorded 1 win and there was 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on May 3, 2025

Everton scored 4 goals in total, while Ipswich Town scored 2 goals

Key Players

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall with 8 goals and 4 assists with a season rating of 7.01

James Garner recorded 2 goals, 7 assists, and a strong season rating of 7.33

James Tarkowski anchors the defense with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.14

Leif Davis starts in defense for the away side

Saša Lukić has played at this venue with an average rating of 6.3

Christian Walton starts in the goalkeeper position for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford is in goal for Everton with an average season rating of 6.81

Christian Walton is lined up as goalkeeper for the visitors

Everton has recorded 11 clean sheets this season, compared to 17 clean sheets for Ipswich Town

Influences

Hill Dickinson Stadium averages 3.8 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played at this venue

Additionally, 80% of matches at this location ended with over 2.5 goals

The surface is natural grass

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