Match report →
Everton – Ipswich Town1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Everton
1.53
Total xG
2.54
Ipswich Town
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Everton | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Merlin Röhl not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Everton averaged 43.2% possession and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, playing a counter-oriented style
- Attacking threat: Ipswich Town scores consistently according to advancedStats, averaging around 1.9 goals per game
- Prediction advantage: The model calculates a 48% home win probability for Everton with 1.53 expected goals
Risks
- Restricted data availability regarding the current form of the away team players
- Missing key players: Everton will play without Iliman Ndiaye and Merlin Röhl
- Vulnerable away defense: Ipswich Town concedes an average of 1.43 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Everton48%
Draw29%
Ipswich Town23%
Double chance
Everton or draw77%
Ipswich Town or draw52%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 9 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Everton: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
- Everton: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Everton: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Everton 4-2-3-1 · Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 22 B. Johnson
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 10 J. Grealish
- 11 T. Barry
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 6 I. Diop
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 25 E. Palacios
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 47 J. Clarke
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Substitutes
- 31 T. King
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 5 M. Keane
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 30 H. Hackney
- 19 T. George
- 58 B. Graham
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 24 J. Greaves
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 38 D. Maeda
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