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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Leeds United

05/11/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.4
Total xG
3.2
Leeds United
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
THLU

Tottenham Hotspur

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Dominic Solanke not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

Leeds United

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.69
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Noah Okafor not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Jayden Bogle not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United with Wilfried Gnonto: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Leeds United: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    Tottenham Hotspur with Lucas Bergvall: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Tottenham Hotspur: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Leeds United's stronger recent form and positive goal trend (2.0 goals vs 1.6 season average), while Tottenham Hotspur's goal production is declining (1.0 goals vs 1.6 season average)
  • The mathematical analysis shows a 43% higher probability for an away win for Leeds United compared to a 30% home win for Tottenham Hotspur
  • Leeds United are predicted to score more goals (1.73) according to the model than Tottenham Hotspur (1.42 expected goals)
Risk Factors
  • Leeds United concedes an average of 2.21 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Tottenham Hotspur concedes an average of 1.88 goals per home game (homeGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Tottenham Hotspur's extensive list of absentees, including D. Solanke (Muscle Injury), M. Kudus (Muscle Injury), X. Simons (Unknown Injury), G. Vicario (Groin Injury), and C. Romero (Knee Injury)
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 37 points) host Leeds United (16th place, 43 points) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Premier League match on May 11, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the league table

Form

Tottenham Hotspur's form in the last five matches is LLDWW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Leeds United comes into the match with form WWDLW

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five games

Leeds United has a current winning streak of 1 game, while Tottenham Hotspur has achieved 2 consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tottenham Hotspur scored an average of 1.29 goals per game and conceded 1.54 goals

Leeds United scored an average of 1.34 goals per game and conceded 1.49 goals

In home games, Tottenham Hotspur scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 1.88 goals

Leeds United scored an average of 1.36 goals away and conceded 2.21 goals

Tottenham Hotspur kept 8 clean sheets, Leeds United kept 7 clean sheets

At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, an average of 4.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 games (80%)

More than 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games (100%)

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams in total

Tottenham Hotspur won 1 match and Leeds United won 0 matches

There were 0 draws

Tottenham Hotspur scored 2 goals and Leeds United scored 1 goal

The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Tottenham Hotspur

Key Players

For Tottenham Hotspur, Richarlison is an important player with 10 goals and 5 assists and an average rating of 6.95

His form is currently declining (-0.28)

Pedro Porro showed rising form (+0.70) with 1 goal and 2 assists and an average rating of 6.97

João Palhinha contributed 4 goals and 2 assists, his form is stable (-0.01)

On the Leeds United side, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a key player with 12 goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 6.91

His form is stable (+0.07)

Anton Stach scored 5 goals and 3 assists, his form is currently declining (-0.27)

Brenden Aaronson provided 4 goals and 5 assists, his form is stable (+0.13)

Goalkeepers

Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper Antonín Kinský has not scored or assisted in 4 appearances

Tottenham Hotspur has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Leeds United's goalkeeper Karl Darlow has not scored or assisted in 19 appearances

Leeds United has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, an average of 4.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of the games

Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.88 goals

Leeds United scores an average of 1.36 goals away and concedes 2.21 goals

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