Match report →
Fulham – Manchester United1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fulham
1.25
Total xG
2.43
Manchester United
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fulham | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 12% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Patrick Dorgu on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced prediction: The model calculates an extremely close match with 36% home win and 33% away win probability
- Historical dominance: Manchester United is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters, celebrating 3 wins
- Offensive drive: Manchester United averaged 6.4 shots on target per match recently compared to Fulham's 4.4
Risks
- Fulham's negative trend: The hosts are winless in 4 league games and sit bottom of the table with just one point
- Vulnerable away defense: Manchester United concede an average of 1.53 goals per away match
- Midfield absences: T. Cairney is missing for Fulham while Manchester United have to cope without M. Ugarte Ribeiro
All probabilities
Result
Fulham36%
Draw31%
Manchester United33%
Double chance
Fulham or draw67%
Manchester United or draw64%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fulham: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
- Manchester United: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Fulham 4-2-3-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 23 L. Shaw
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 9 M. Rashford
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Substitutes
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 32 E. Smith Rowe
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 15 H. Larsson
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 31 S. Lacey
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