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Premier League

Fulham - Manchester United

09/20/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Fulham
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Manchester United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FULMU

Fulham

Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.24
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
12% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

Manchester United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Patrick Dorgu on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 2
    Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Manchester United: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

31%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Balanced prediction: The model calculates an extremely close match with 36% home win and 33% away win probability
  • Historical dominance: Manchester United is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters, celebrating 3 wins
  • Offensive drive: Manchester United averaged 6.4 shots on target per match recently compared to Fulham's 4.4
Risk Factors
  • Fulham's negative trend: The hosts are winless in 4 league games and sit bottom of the table with just one point
  • Vulnerable away defense: Manchester United concede an average of 1.53 goals per away match
  • Midfield absences: T. Cairney is missing for Fulham while Manchester United have to cope without M. Ugarte Ribeiro
Overview

Fulham host Manchester United at Craven Cottage

Premier League match on September 20, 2026, 4:30 PM

Bottom-of-the-table Fulham face 13th-placed Manchester United

The home side is in desperate need of points in the relegation battle

Form

Fulham's recent form is WLLLD with just one draw in their last match

Manchester United show a form of LWDWL with 2 wins and 2 losses

Fulham earned only one point recently from the draw against Liverpool

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fulham score an average of 1.24 goals and concede 1.34 goals per season

Manchester United average 1.82 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per match

At home, Fulham concede an average of only 0.83 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for Manchester United and none for Fulham

The last encounter on February 1, 2026, ended in a 3-2 win for Manchester United

Manchester United scored 7 goals in total against Fulham during this period

Key Players

Josh King scored 2 goals in his last 4 appearances with a rating of 7.13

Bruno Fernandes contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Bryan Mbeumo has 11 goals this season and scored 2 in his last 5 games

Not nominated: Patrick Dorgu (4 goals / 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Bernd Leno recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Senne Lammens kept 8 clean sheets in the current campaign

Both goalkeepers averaged a rating below 6.7 over their last 5 games

Influences

Matches at Craven Cottage historically average 2.8 goals per game

The home advantage is backed by Fulham conceding only 0.83 goals on average at home

The game will be played on grass

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