Match report →
Newcastle United – Hull City2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newcastle United
1.64
Total xG
2.64
Hull City
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newcastle United | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 15% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical contrast: Newcastle controlled play with an average of 48.2% possession, while Hull City played counter-oriented football averaging just 30.0% possession recently
- Form discrepancy: Hull City remains undefeated in their last five matches (WWWDD), whereas Newcastle has struggled with only one win (LDWDL)
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Newcastle with a 51% home win probability and expects 1.64 home goals
Risks
- Low attacking efficiency: Newcastle averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Resilient away defense: Hull City concedes an average of just 1.28 goals per away match this season
- Limited player statistics data for Hull City in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Newcastle United51%
Draw28%
Hull City22%
Double chance
Newcastle United or draw78%
Hull City or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Newcastle United: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Hull City: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Newcastle United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Newcastle United: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 · Hull City 5-4-1
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 67 L. Miley
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 14 S. Steur
- 28 J. Willock
- 23 J. Murphy
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 11 H. Barnes
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 22 L. Herrington
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 25 M. Crooks
- 27 R. Slater
- 7 S. Thomas
- 9 O. McBurnie
Substitutes
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 48 M. Pivas
- 49 V. Salia
- 76 M. Miley
- 44 K. Thompson
- 77 M. Mills
- 47 R. Vaz
- 50 M. Cho
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 12 D. Phillips
- 29 L. Gourna Douath
- 17 P. McNair
- 21 E. Stroud
- 14 J. Hjertø-Dahl
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