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Premier League

Newcastle United - Hull City

09/19/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Hull City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
NUHC

Newcastle United

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.12
15% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Hull City

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.86
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 2
    Newcastle United: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Hull City: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Newcastle United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

28%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Tactical contrast: Newcastle controlled play with an average of 48.2% possession, while Hull City played counter-oriented football averaging just 30.0% possession recently
  • Form discrepancy: Hull City remains undefeated in their last five matches (WWWDD), whereas Newcastle has struggled with only one win (LDWDL)
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Newcastle with a 51% home win probability and expects 1.64 home goals
Risk Factors
  • Low attacking efficiency: Newcastle averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Resilient away defense: Hull City concedes an average of just 1.28 goals per away match this season
  • Limited player statistics data for Hull City in the provided dataset
Overview

Newcastle United (12th place, 5 points) hosts Hull City (5th place, 8 points) at St. James' Park

Premier League match on September 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

The visitors arrive undefeated and sitting in 5th place

Newcastle looks to bounce back after an inconsistent start to the season

Form

Newcastle shows mixed form with one win, two draws, and two losses (LDWDL)

Most recently suffered a heavy 1-4 defeat against Leeds United

Hull City travels with a strong run of three wins and two draws (WWWDD)

The visitors shared points in a 2-2 draw with Chelsea in their last outing

Statistics

Newcastle United averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded this season

At home, their defense tightens up to an average of 1.15 goals conceded

Hull City scores an average of 1.48 goals away from home while conceding 1.28

The visitors have kept 14 clean sheets throughout the season

Key Players

Harvey Barnes leads Newcastle with 7 goals this season

Yoane Wissa shows rising form with recently recording one goal and one assist

Sven Botman stabilizes the defense with an average rating of 6.97

For Hull City, Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi, and Regan Slater are in the starting lineup

Goalkeepers

Lukas Hornicek guards the goal for Newcastle United and holds a home rating of 7.06

On the opposite side, Konstantinos Tzolakis starts in goal for Hull City

Throughout the season, the hosts kept 8 clean sheets, whereas Hull recorded 14

Influences

Matches at St. James' Park recently averaged 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in all five of the analyzed home fixtures

The historical home advantage is backed by a solid home record of 36 goals scored

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