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Brentford – Chelsea3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brentford
1.95
Total xG
3.12
Chelsea
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Dango Ouattara on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Nathan Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| João Pedro not in squad (15 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Reece James not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Malo Gusto on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 42% available) |
Key factors
- Only 43% of Chelsea's goal threat is available, with João Pedro, Reece James, and Malo Gusto missing
- Brentford are highly solid at home, conceding only 0.91 goals per match on season average
- Chelsea averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Chelsea conceded an average of 2.2 goals in recent matches, well above their season average
- High draw potential with Brentford recording 4 draws in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Brentford54%
Draw25%
Chelsea21%
Double chance
Brentford or draw79%
Chelsea or draw46%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- Chelsea: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)
Lineups
Brentford 4-2-3-1 · Chelsea 3-4-2-1
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 44 J. Schuster
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 27 V. Janelt
- 19 J. Anthony
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Chelsea
- 1 D. Martínez
- 3 W. Fofana
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 6 L. Colwill
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 14 J. Henderson
- 4 V. Barco
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Substitutes
- 18 M. Sangare
- 2 A. Hickey
- 31 E. Balcombe
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 14 F. Carvalho
- 3 R. Henry
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 48 B. Fredrick
- 39 M. Penders
- 21 J. Hato
- 11 J. Bynoe-Gittens
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 45 R. Lavia
- 27 M. Gusto
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 23 G. Quenda
- 32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli
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