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Premier League

Brentford - Chelsea

09/18/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Brentford
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Chelsea
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BRECHE

Brentford

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.68
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Dango Ouattara on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
Nathan Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Chelsea

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
JoĂŁo Pedro not in squad (15 goals, 5 assists)
Reece James not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Malo Gusto on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 42% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)

  • 2
    Chelsea: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

25%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Only 43% of Chelsea's goal threat is available, with JoĂŁo Pedro, Reece James, and Malo Gusto missing
  • Brentford are highly solid at home, conceding only 0.91 goals per match on season average
  • Chelsea averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Chelsea conceded an average of 2.2 goals in recent matches, well above their season average
  • High draw potential with Brentford recording 4 draws in their last 5 games
Overview

Brentford host Chelsea at Gtech Community Stadium

Premier League match on September 18, 2026, 8:00 PM

Chelsea sit 6th with 7 points, followed closely by Brentford in 7th with 6 points

Form

Brentford remain unbeaten this season with a DWDDD form (1 win, 4 draws)

The home side comes off three consecutive draws

Chelsea present a form of LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Brentford score 1.45 goals and concede 1.37 goals per match on season average

At home, Brentford concede only 0.91 goals per game

Chelsea average 1.53 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per away match

Head-to-Head

Brentford did not record a single home win in the last 4 head-to-head matches

Chelsea collected 2 wins and 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 2:0 away win for Chelsea on January 17, 2026

Key Players

Igor Thiago leads Brentford with 22 goals this season but remained scoreless in his last 5 games

Kevin Schade is in rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Cole Palmer has been outstanding for Chelsea with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances

Not selected for Brentford: Dango Ouattara (7G/3A), Nathan Collins (1G/2A)

Goalkeepers

CaoimhĂ­n Kelleher features as Brentford's reliable goalkeeper with a 6.91 season rating

Chelsea field Emiliano MartĂ­nez, who averaged a rating of 6.67 in his last 5 games

Influences

The match is played on grass at Gtech Community Stadium

The venue average stands at 2.4 goals per match based on recent history

The mathematical model estimates a 54% probability for a home win

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