Match report →
Leeds United – Crystal Palace0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Leeds United
1.90
Total xG
3.06
Crystal Palace
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Leeds United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Eddie Nketiah on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Leeds United enters as favorites in 6th place with a calculated 53% win probability
- Leeds recently averaged 3.8 shots on target per match with 47% possession
- Leeds is defensively solid at home, conceding an average of only 0.95 goals per game
Risks
- Crystal Palace has a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest compared to Leeds with 6 days
- The absence of key striker J. Mateta (12 goals) severely weakens the visitors' attack
All probabilities
Result
Leeds United53%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace22%
Double chance
Leeds United or draw78%
Crystal Palace or draw47%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Leeds United 3-5-2 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 18 A. Stach
- 19 N. Okafor
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 26 C. Richards
- 17 T. Tomiyasu
- 6 J. Canvot
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 23 Q. Timber
- 20 A. Wharton
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Substitutes
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 7 D. James
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 7 I. Sarr
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 31 R. Matthews
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
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