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Premier League

Leeds United - Crystal Palace

09/20/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Leeds United
1.9
Total xG
3.1
Crystal Palace
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LUCP

Leeds United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Crystal Palace

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.13
Eddie Nketiah on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Crystal Palace: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

25%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Leeds United enters as favorites in 6th place with a calculated 53% win probability
  • Leeds recently averaged 3.8 shots on target per match with 47% possession
  • Leeds is defensively solid at home, conceding an average of only 0.95 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Crystal Palace has a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest compared to Leeds with 6 days
  • The absence of key striker J. Mateta (12 goals) severely weakens the visitors' attack
Overview

Leeds United (6th place, 8 points) host Crystal Palace (17th place, 3 points) at Elland Road

Premier League match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM

The hosts enter as favorites with a calculated win probability of 53%

Form

Form Leeds United: LWDDW

Form Crystal Palace: LLWLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Leeds recently secured a clear 4-1 win over Newcastle while Palace beat Lech Poznań 4-0

Statistics

Leeds United scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.47 goals this season

At home, Leeds is defensively stronger, conceding only 0.95 goals per game on average

Crystal Palace averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per season

Palace currently scores more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5

Head-to-Head

A total of 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Leeds United with one victory (4-1) alongside a scoreless draw (0-0)

Crystal Palace are still waiting for a win against Leeds in this period

Key Players

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has 14 goals and one assist this season

Noah Okafor contributes 8 goals and one assist

Anton Stach shines in midfield with 5 goals, 3 assists, and a 7.24 rating

Adam Wharton records one goal and 5 assists with a 6.97 rating

Tyrick Mitchell scored twice in his last 5 matches

Daichi Kamada provided 3 assists in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

James Trafford starts in goal for Leeds, who have kept 8 clean sheets this season

Walter BenĆ­tez holds a 7.30 rating for Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace registered a total of 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage at Elland Road with an average of 3.0 goals per game in local history

Both teams scored in 60% of matches played at this venue

The match is played on grass

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