Match report →
Manchester City – Sunderland5 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Manchester City
2.09
Total xG
3.04
Sunderland
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Phil Foden not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Trai Hume on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- League leaders Manchester City (12 points) face 14th-placed Sunderland (4 points)
- Manchester City dominated recent matches, averaging 65% possession and 6.2 shots on target
- The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 62.5%
Risks
- Sunderland has to play with only 4 days of recovery time since their last competitive match
- Sunderland's defense shows weaknesses away, conceding an average of 1.87 goals per away game
- Phil Foden is missing for Manchester City due to a red card suspension
All probabilities
Result
Manchester City62%
Draw23%
Sunderland15%
Double chance
Manchester City or draw85%
Sunderland or draw38%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
5:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Manchester City: 76% of all goals in the second half (19 of 25, last 12 games)
- Sunderland: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
Lineups
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 · Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Guehi
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 17 E. Fernández
- 5 E. Anderson
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 10 M. Cherki
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 9 E. Haaland
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 5 D. Ballard
- 6 D. Methalie
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 12 T. Meunier
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Substitutes
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 11 J. Doku
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
- 39 M. Fofana
- 7 C. Talbi
- 18 W. Isidor
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 32 T. Hume
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 11 C. Rigg
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →