Match report →
Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
0.98
Total xG
2.23
Aston Villa
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap) | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Mathys Tel not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Archie Gray on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Matty Cash on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ross Barkley on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 53% of regular attacking threat available, missing Mathys Tel, Archie Gray and Conor Gallagher
- Tottenham Hotspur averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical dominance for the visitors with 4 wins in the last 5 head-to-head matches against Spurs
Risks
- Aston Villa averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Tottenham's goal production is struggling heavily, averaging only 0.33 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.45
- Aston Villa are missing two key players in Matty Cash and Ross Barkley
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur27%
Draw32%
Aston Villa41%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw59%
Aston Villa or draw73%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (18/10 games, last 30)
- John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 16 S. Tonali
- 17 S. Moreira de Oliveira
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 22 O. Marmoush
- 19 D. Solanke
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 5 T. Mings
- 13 M. Ruggeri
- 8 B. Kamara
- 35 Gomes
- 7 J. McGinn
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 10 E. Buendía
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 4 O. Adarabioyo
- 13 I. Udogie
- 20 M. Kudus
- 14 A. Gray
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 10 J. Maddison
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 2 M. Cash
- 6 R. Barkley
- 4 T. Harwood-Bellis
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
- 42 J. Wright
- 53 G. Hemmings
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →