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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa

09/19/2026, 11:30 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Aston Villa
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
THAV

Tottenham Hotspur

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.38
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.34
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)
-0.33
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Mathys Tel not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Archie Gray on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

Aston Villa

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)
+0.08
Matty Cash on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ross Barkley on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (18/10 games, last 30)

  • 3
    John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

32%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Only 53% of regular attacking threat available, missing Mathys Tel, Archie Gray and Conor Gallagher
  • Tottenham Hotspur averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical dominance for the visitors with 4 wins in the last 5 head-to-head matches against Spurs
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Tottenham's goal production is struggling heavily, averaging only 0.33 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.45
  • Aston Villa are missing two key players in Matty Cash and Ross Barkley
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 2 points) host Aston Villa (19th place, 1 point) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League match on September 19, 2026, 12:30 PM

Both teams are currently struggling at the bottom of the table early in the season

The away side enters with a calculated win probability of 41%

Form

Tottenham Hotspur hold a recent form of WLLDD

The home side recently secured a 0-0 draw against Everton

Aston Villa travel with a form of LLDWL

The visitors lost their last match 1-2 against Nottingham Forest

Statistics

Tottenham Hotspur scored an average of 1.26 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game over the season

At home, their average stands at 1.29 scored and 1.82 conceded

Aston Villa averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game

In away games, the visitors conceded an average of 1.69 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tottenham had 1 win and Aston Villa had 4 wins

None of these matches ended in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 5-9 from Spurs' perspective

The last meeting on May 3, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Aston Villa

Key Players

Pedro Porro (rating: 7.01) and Rodrigo Bentancur (rating: 6.88) support the defence and midfield of Spurs

Micky van de Ven adds stability with a season rating of 6.75

For Aston Villa, Boubacar Kamara guides the play with a rating of 6.94

He is joined by John McGinn (rating: 6.90) and Emiliano Buendía (rating: 6.84)

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský guards the Spurs' net, carrying a season rating of 6.59

Zion Suzuki starts in goal for the visiting side

Tottenham managed 9 clean sheets this season, matching Aston Villa's 9 clean sheets

Influences

Matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium averaged 1.8 goals per game recently

Spurs conceded an average of 1.82 goals at home, reducing their home advantage

The visitors scored an average of 1.5 goals away from home

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