DumbleScore
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Premier League10/10/2026, 02:00 PM

Aston Villa – Brentford2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Aston Villa
1.08
Total xG
2.53
Brentford
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAston VillaBrentford
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean−0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)−0.34
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.32+0.32
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.08
Full strength squad available
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Form advantage and model forecast: Brentford arrive undefeated and are favored with a 44% away win probability
  • Improving efficiency: Brentford are scoring more frequently recently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
  • Attacking rhythm: Brentford averaged 4.6 shots on target per match in recent games

Risks

  • Away defensive vulnerability: Brentford concede an average of 2.07 goals per away match
  • Limited goal threat in available squad: Only 7% of seasonal goal production is available for the home team
  • High goal environment: Villa Park averages 3.4 total goals per match

All probabilities

Result
Aston Villa27%
Draw30%
Brentford44%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw56%
Brentford or draw73%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (19/9 games, last 30)
  3. John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  4. Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)

Lineups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1

Aston Villa
  • 1 Z. Suzuki
  • 2 M. Cash
  • 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
  • 5 T. Mings
  • 13 M. Ruggeri
  • 8 B. Kamara
  • 35 Gomes
  • 7 J. McGinn
  • 10 E. BuendĂ­a
  • 44 J. Manzambi
  • 11 N. Jackson
Brentford
  • 1 C. Kelleher
  • 33 M. Kayode
  • 44 J. Schuster
  • 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
  • 25 E. Diouf
  • 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
  • 27 V. Janelt
  • 19 J. Anthony
  • 23 K. Lewis-Potter
  • 7 K. Schade
  • 9 Thiago
Substitutes
  • 19 I. Mbaye
  • 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
  • 14 P. Francisco Torres
  • 40 M. Bizot
  • 26 L. Bogarde
  • 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
  • 6 R. Barkley
  • 17 A. Garnacho
  • 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
  • 18 M. Sangare
  • 4 S. van den Berg
  • 2 A. Hickey
  • 11 Dango Ouattara
  • 14 F. Carvalho
  • 8 M. Jensen
  • 12 H. Valdimarsson
  • 13 C. Wilson
  • 48 B. Fredrick

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