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Premier League10/10/2026, 02:00 PM

Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth5 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Chelsea
1.60
Total xG
2.72
AFC Bournemouth
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorChelseaAFC Bournemouth
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.32+0.32
Attack strength (1.22x league average)+0.20
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)−0.19
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)−0.18
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean−0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.10
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.03
Jorrel Hato on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Mathematical advantage: The model projects a 47% home win chance with 1.60 expected goals for Chelsea
  • Attacking consistency: Chelsea score consistently at 1.9 goals per game while Bournemouth dropped to 1.4 recently
  • Tactical threat: Chelsea averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Defensive weakness: Chelsea conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match in recent outings
  • Away record concerns: Bournemouth concede an average of 1.79 goals per away match this season
  • Injury concerns: A. Scott and J. Kluivert are missing in midfield due to injuries

All probabilities

Result
Chelsea47%
Draw28%
AFC Bournemouth25%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw75%
AFC Bournemouth or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
5:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  2. AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  3. Chelsea: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  4. AFC Bournemouth: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
  5. AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (13 points lost)
  6. Chelsea: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)

Lineups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Chelsea
  • 1 D. MartĂ­nez
  • 34 J. Acheampong
  • 5 M. Lacroix
  • 6 L. Colwill
  • 7 P. Lomba Neto
  • 14 J. Henderson
  • 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
  • 29 J. ChavarrĂ­a PĂ©rez
  • 10 C. Palmer
  • 17 M. Rogers
  • 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
AFC Bournemouth
  • 1 Đ. Petrović
  • 15 A. Smith
  • 5 J. Hill
  • 14 A. Tavares Silva
  • 3 A. Truffert
  • 12 T. Adams
  • 10 R. Christie
  • 7 D. Brooks
  • 37 R. Rocha
  • 16 M. Tavernier
  • 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
  • 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
  • 39 M. Penders
  • 21 J. Hato
  • 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
  • 3 W. Fofana
  • 45 R. Lavia
  • 27 M. Gusto
  • 23 G. Quenda
  • 2 M. Palestra
  • 30 ?. RodrĂ­guez Muñoz
  • 24 J. SĂĄnchez Velasco
  • 18 B. DiakitĂ©
  • 11 B. Doak
  • 6 J. Soler Barreto
  • 4 L. Cook
  • 29 D. Jebbison
  • 20 M. Di Gregorio
  • 27 A. TĂłth

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