Match report →
Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
1.34
Total xG
2.91
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.54 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.46 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.46 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Brian Brobbey not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Malick Yalcouyé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack form: Brighton averaged 3.2 goals per match in recent games
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis gives Brighton a 41% win probability
- Matchup: Brighton's attack meets a Sunderland side conceding 0.87 goals at home
Risks
- Key forward Brian Brobbey is unavailable for Sunderland (3 season goals)
- Brighton concede an average of 1.62 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland31%
Draw28%
Brighton & Hove Albion41%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw59%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw69%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/9 games, last 30)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Wilson Isidor: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 32 T. Hume
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 12 T. Meunier
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 18 W. Isidor
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 4 P. Struijk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Substitutes
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 7 C. Talbi
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 11 C. Rigg
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 37 D. Bi
- 50 J. Angulo Caiced
- 5 L. Dunk
- 23 J. Steele
- 10 G. Rutter
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
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