DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Premier League10/10/2026, 04:30 PM

Manchester United ā€“ Tottenham Hotspur1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Manchester United
1.80
Total xG
2.76
Tottenham Hotspur
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorManchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur
Attack strength (1.86x league average)+0.68
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to meanāˆ’0.48
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.33
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.32+0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)āˆ’0.32
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.29
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.5 season average)āˆ’0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 12, 8 places gap)āˆ’0.18
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)āˆ’0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.16
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 20, 8 places gap)+0.07
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Model Signal: The analysis calculates a 56% probability for a home win with 1.80 expected home goals
  • Offensive Trend: Manchester United currently score more frequently (2.4 goals) than their season average (1.9)
  • Tactical Advantage: Manchester United averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Tottenham Hotspur's 3.8

Risks

  • Visitor Struggles: Tottenham Hotspur sit 20th in the table with 0 wins from 5 league matches
  • Goal Production: Tottenham Hotspur's goal output has stalled at 0.67 goals per match in recent fixtures

All probabilities

Result
Manchester United56%
Draw26%
Tottenham Hotspur18%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw82%
Tottenham Hotspur or draw44%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
  2. Manchester United: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Lineups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 Ā· Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Manchester United
  • 1 S. Lammens
  • 15 L. Yoro
  • 5 H. Maguire
  • 6 L. MartĆ­nez
  • 23 L. Shaw
  • 18 Y. Tielemans
  • 37 K. Mainoo
  • 16 A. TraorĆ©
  • 8 B. Fernandes
  • 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
  • 19 B. Mbeumo
Tottenham Hotspur
  • 31 A. KinskĆ½
  • 14 A. Gray
  • 6 J. van Hecke
  • 5 M. Senesi
  • 13 I. Udogie
  • 15 L. Bergvall
  • 16 S. Tonali
  • 20 M. Kudus
  • 8 C. Gallagher
  • 17 S. Moreira de Oliveira
  • 19 D. Solanke
Substitutes
  • 20 C. Noom Quomah
  • 9 M. Rashford
  • 12 K. Darlow
  • 7 M. Mount
  • 11 J. Zirkzee
  • 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
  • 26 A. Heaven
  • 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
  • 31 S. Lacey
  • 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
  • 39 M. DĆŗbravka
  • 22 O. Marmoush
  • 4 O. Adarabioyo
  • 33 B. Davies
  • 37 M. van de Ven
  • 30 R. Bentancur ColmĆ”n
  • 10 J. Maddison
  • 11 M. Tel

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