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Premier League

Manchester City - Brentford

05/09/2026, 04:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Manchester City
2.2
Total xG
4.0
Brentford
1.8
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MCBRE

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+1.01
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.00
Full strength squad available

Brentford

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.78
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Dango Ouattara on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Manchester City with Phil Foden: 13 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Brentford with Kristoffer Ajer: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Manchester City: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

22%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

92%

Under 1.5

8%

Over 2.5

76%

Under 2.5

24%

Over 3.5

57%

Under 3.5

43%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

75%

No

25%

Key Factors
  • Home team favoritism: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 47% probability
  • Offensive strength and home advantage: Manchester City scores an average of 2.0 home goals and concedes only 0.63 goals per home game
  • Brentford's away weakness: The team concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Injuries at Manchester City: J. Gvardiol (Broken Leg) and Rodri (Doubtful) are missing
  • Brentford's positive form: The team is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
  • High probability for both teams to score: The mathematical analysis predicts a BTTS probability of 75%
Overview

Manchester City (2nd place, 71 points) host Brentford (7th place, 51 points) at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League match on May 9, 2026, 5:30 PM

The hosts are battling at the top of the table, while Brentford have established themselves in the upper mid-table

Form

Manchester City is in excellent form, recording 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches (WWWWD)

Their last game ended in a draw, following a series of victories

Brentford shows mixed form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches (DDDLW)

The Bees won their last game

Statistics

Manchester City scores an average of 2.03 goals per game and concedes 0.94 goals per game

Brentford averages 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Manchester City's home strength is evident with 2.0 goals scored and only 0.63 goals conceded per home game

Brentford concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 17 Manchester City matches and 18 Brentford matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 21 Manchester City games and 18 Brentford games

The Etihad Stadium has seen an average of 3.4 goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Manchester City dominated with 4 wins

There was 1 draw and no wins for Brentford

Manchester City scored 9 goals, while Brentford scored 4 goals

The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Manchester City

Key Players

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland stands out, having scored 25 goals and provided 7 assists in 33 season appearances

Rayan Cherki delivered 4 goals and 11 assists in 29 appearances and shows a rising form trend

Jérémy Doku contributes to the offense with 4 goals and 5 assists in 26 games and is also in ascending form

For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the top scorer with 22 goals and 1 assist in 35 games

Mikkel Damsgaard scored 4 goals and 4 assists in 30 games and shows a rising form

Mathias Jensen contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 33 matches, and his form is also on the rise

Goalkeepers

Manchester City's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher achieved 10 games without conceding a goal

Influences

Manchester City benefits from home advantage, as they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede only 0.63 goals at the Etihad Stadium

The Etihad Stadium is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five encounters

In the last five home games, over 2.5 goals were always scored, and both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games

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