DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Premier League10/11/2026, 01:00 PM

Crystal Palace ā€“ Nottingham Forest3 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Crystal Palace
1.52
Total xG
3.07
Nottingham Forest
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
Attack strength (1.37x league average)+0.96
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to meanāˆ’0.71
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.37+0.37
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to meanāˆ’0.33
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.5 season average)+0.30
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)āˆ’0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.15
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)āˆ’0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)āˆ’0.13
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.06
Full strength squad available
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Balanced model signal: The prediction model calculates a very tight contest with a 36% home win and 37% away win probability
  • High goal trend at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace's last 5 home games all produced over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.2 goals per match
  • Limited active goal threat: Both squads must cover missing goal output, with active players providing just 12% and 8% of total season goals

Risks

  • Low attacking threat: Nottingham Forest averaged just 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Defensive absences: Crystal Palace are missing T. Tomiyasu, C. Riad, and suspended A. Disasi

All probabilities

Result
Crystal Palace36%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest37%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw63%
Nottingham Forest or draw64%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Crystal Palace: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Nottingham Forest: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Lineups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 Ā· Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Crystal Palace
  • 44 W. BenĆ­tez
  • 8 J. Lerma SolĆ­s
  • 26 C. Richards
  • 6 J. Canvot
  • 25 A. Khalaili
  • 20 A. Wharton
  • 23 Q. Timber
  • 3 T. Mitchell
  • 18 D. Kamada
  • 10 Y. JesĆŗs Pino Santos
  • 22 J. Strand Larsen
Nottingham Forest
  • 26 M. Sels
  • 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
  • 2 O. Diomande
  • 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
  • 27 D. MuƱoz MejĆ­a
  • 21 X. Schlager
  • 24 J. Mcatee
  • 3 N. Williams
  • 10 M. Gibbs-White
  • 14 D. Ndoye
  • 19 L. Delap
Substitutes
  • 30 Ɠ. Mingueza GarcĆ­a
  • 11 D. McNeil
  • 29 E. Guessand
  • 28 C. Doucoure
  • 7 I. Sarr
  • 19 W. Hughes
  • 9 E. Nketiah
  • 31 R. Matthews
  • 21 H. Ahanor
  • 25 L. Netz
  • 12 J. Furtado
  • 15 A. Muinga
  • 23 J. da Cunha Filho
  • 8 N. DomĆ­nguez
  • 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
  • 6 I. SangarĆ©
  • 22 R. Yates
  • 9 C. Wood

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