Match report →
Ipswich Town – Fulham2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ipswich Town
1.58
Total xG
2.62
Fulham
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ipswich Town | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away defensive weakness: Fulham concede an average of 2.21 goals per away match
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Ipswich with a 48% win probability (1.58 to 1.04 expected goals)
- Form gap: Fulham remain winless across their last 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Ipswich Town conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head history: Both previous matches between these sides ended in draws
All probabilities
Result
Ipswich Town48%
Draw28%
Fulham23%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw77%
Fulham or draw52%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 · Fulham 4-2-3-1
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 6 I. Diop
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 38 D. Maeda
- 10 J. Enciso
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 2 K. Tete
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Substitutes
- 25 E. Palacios
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 8 S. Egeli
- 5 A. Matusiwa
- 47 J. Clarke
- 24 J. Greaves
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 32 E. Smith Rowe
- 21 T. Castagne
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 15 H. Larsson
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
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