Match report →
Arsenal – Leeds United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
1.68
Total xG
2.86
Leeds United
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.59 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction model gives Arsenal a 48% win probability with 1.68 expected goals
- Tactical activity: Arsenal averaged 5.2 shots on target with 58.2% possession in recent matches
- Head-to-head record: Arsenal won all previous matches against Leeds United with a 9:0 goal differential
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Leeds United concede an average of 2.19 goals per away match
- Slowing offensive form: Arsenal's recent scoring average dropped to 1.2 goals per game compared to their 2.0 season average
- Coverage risk: The model estimates a combined draw or away win probability of 52%
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal48%
Draw27%
Leeds United25%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw75%
Leeds United or draw52%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United 3-4-2-1
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 20 C. Madueke
- 29 K. Havertz
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 18 A. Stach
- 19 N. Okafor
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitutes
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 12 J. Timber
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 10 H. Wilson
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
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