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Premier League10/11/2026, 03:30 PM

Liverpool – Manchester City0 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Liverpool
1.27
Total xG
2.71
Manchester City
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorLiverpoolManchester City
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.59
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.37+0.37
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)−0.33
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)−0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)+0.12
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)+0.04
Alexander Isak not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Cody Gakpo not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
83% of goal output missing (only 32% available)
Josko Gvardiol  on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Phil Foden not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Only 33% of goal threat available, without Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo
  • Manchester City enter the match on a perfect 5-game winning streak (WWWWW)
  • Manchester City averaged 6.2 shots on target with 63% possession in recent matches

Risks

  • Manchester City concede an average of 1.31 goals per away match
  • Phil Foden is unavailable for Manchester City due to a Red Card Suspension

All probabilities

Result
Liverpool32%
Draw29%
Manchester City40%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw60%
Manchester City or draw68%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Manchester City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
  2. Manchester City: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
  3. Liverpool: 40% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 20)
  4. Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
  5. Liverpool: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Lineups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Liverpool
  • 1 A. Becker
  • 33 R. AraĂșjo da Silva
  • 5 J. Jacquet
  • 4 V. van Dijk
  • 6 Milos Kerkez
  • 38 R. Gravenberch
  • 10 A. Mac Allister
  • 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
  • 7 F. Wirtz
  • 29 B. Barcola
  • 67 L. Koumas
Manchester City
  • 1 G. Donnarumma
  • 27 M. Nunes
  • 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
  • 6 M. Guehi
  • 33 N. O'Reilly
  • 5 E. Anderson
  • 17 E. FernĂĄndez
  • 7 I. Ndiaye
  • 10 M. Cherki
  • 42 A. Semenyo
  • 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
  • 42 T. Nyoni
  • 30 J. Frimpong
  • 25 G. Mamardashvili
  • 3 W. Endo
  • 73 R. Ngumoha
  • 2 J. Gomez
  • 14 F. Chiesa
  • 53 J. McConnell
  • 21 K. Tsimikas
  • 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
  • 28 G. Rulli
  • 32 A. Bouaddi
  • 8 M. Kovačić
  • 24 J. Gvardiol
  • 82 R. Lewis
  • 45 A. Khusanov
  • 11 J. Doku
  • 37 A. Andrade Elias

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