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Coventry City – Newcastle United4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coventry City
1.23
Total xG
2.41
Newcastle United
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coventry City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.76 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.57 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Elanga not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Struggling home attack: Coventry City averaged only 0.2 goals per match in recent games
- Tactical stats: Newcastle United averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches with 48.6% possession
- Balanced model prediction: The model calculates a 36% home win probability (Newcastle 33%, draw 31%)
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Newcastle United concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
- Coventry goal deficit: Home team averaged just 0.2 goals in recent matches compared to 2.11 season average
- Match sharpness gap: Both teams have gone 23 days without a competitive match
All probabilities
Result
Coventry City36%
Draw31%
Newcastle United33%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Coventry City or draw67%
Newcastle United or draw64%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newcastle United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Coventry City 4-2-3-1 · Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 6 M. Grimes
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 49 S. Cherif
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 67 L. Miley
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 28 J. Willock
- 23 J. Murphy
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 11 H. Barnes
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
Substitutes
- 34 Y. Gboho
- 25 D. Bentley
- 16 O. Frank
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 9 E. Simms
- 38 G. Hamer
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 10 W. Osula
- 33 D. Burn
- 7 J. Apolinário de Lira
- 37 A. Dedić
- 14 S. Steur
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