Match report →
Hull City – Everton2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Hull City
1.40
Total xG
2.69
Everton
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.37 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Mohamed Belloumi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Statistical model predicts a 38% probability for a home win and 33% for an away win
- Everton averaged 16.0 total shots and 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Everton remain undefeated in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws
Risks
- Mohamed Belloumi is missing, leaving only 57% active goals share available
- Hull City averaged only 32.4% possession in recent matches
- Everton concede an average of 1.35 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Hull City38%
Draw29%
Everton33%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Hull City or draw67%
Everton or draw62%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 9 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Everton: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
- Everton: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Hull City 5-4-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 R. Giles
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 25 M. Crooks
- 27 R. Slater
- 7 S. Thomas
- 9 O. McBurnie
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 5 M. Keane
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 37 J. Garner
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 22 B. Johnson
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 10 J. Grealish
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 47 R. Vaz
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 12 D. Phillips
- 5 H. Morita
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 17 P. McNair
- 22 L. Herrington
- 21 E. Stroud
- 12 M. Travers
- 34 M. Röhl
- 20 T. Dibling
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 30 H. Hackney
- 23 C. Nørgaard
- 19 T. George
- 58 B. Graham
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