Match report →
Leeds United – Manchester United1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Leeds United
1.35
Total xG
2.89
Manchester United
1.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Leeds United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Matheus Cunha on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: Manchester United generated 1.58 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
- Shots: Manchester United took 17.4 shots per game in the last 5 games, Leeds 12.2 per game
Risks
- Home/Away: Leeds concedes 0.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Manchester United 1.67 away per game
- Table: Leeds collected 9 points from 6 games in the league this season, Manchester United 6 points from 6 games
All probabilities
Result
Leeds United32%
Draw28%
Manchester United40%
Double chance
Leeds United or draw60%
Manchester United or draw68%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (16/8 games, last 30)
- Manchester United: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Leeds United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 18 A. Stach
- 19 N. Okafor
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 15 L. Yoro
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 16 A. Traoré
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Substitutes
- 10 H. Wilson
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
- 9 M. Rashford
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 41 H. Amass
- 31 S. Lacey
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