Match report →
Everton – Chelsea0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Everton
1.41
Total xG
2.69
Chelsea
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Everton scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, Chelsea concedes 2.33 goals per game away
- Form: Everton is unbeaten in 6 league games this season with 2 wins, 4 draws and 0.83 goals conceded per game
Risks
- Attack: Chelsea scored 2.5 goals per game in 6 league games this season
- Head-to-head: Chelsea won 2 of the 4 meetings against Everton, with 1 draw and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
Everton39%
Draw29%
Chelsea32%
Double chance
Everton or draw68%
Chelsea or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 8 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Everton: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Chelsea: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chelsea: 33% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 21)
- Everton: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Everton: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
Lineups
Everton 4-2-3-1 · Chelsea 4-2-3-1
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 34 M. Röhl
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 10 J. Grealish
- 11 T. Barry
Chelsea
- 1 D. Martínez
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 6 L. Colwill
- 21 J. Hato
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitutes
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 5 M. Keane
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 22 B. Johnson
- 30 H. Hackney
- 23 C. Nørgaard
- 19 T. George
- 58 B. Graham
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 39 M. Penders
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 3 W. Fofana
- 45 R. Lavia
- 23 G. Quenda
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 2 M. Palestra
- 32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli
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