Match report →
Brentford – Liverpool1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Brentford
1.22
Total xG
3.04
Liverpool
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.74 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Schade on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Liverpool conceded 0.67 goals per game away in the league this season in 3 games
- Shots on target: Liverpool averaged 5.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Brentford 3.8 per game
- Head-to-head: Liverpool won 2 of the 4 meetings against Brentford with 1 draw and 1 loss
Risks
- Form: Brentford is undefeated in the league this season in 6 games with 2 wins and 4 draws
- Rest days: Liverpool with 3 days since their last match
- Personnel: Liverpool without R. Gravenberch, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Brentford24%
Draw26%
Liverpool50%
Double chance
Brentford or draw50%
Liverpool or draw76%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Liverpool: 43% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (9 of 21)
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
- Liverpool: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
Brentford 4-2-3-1 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 27 V. Janelt
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 8 M. Jensen
- 19 J. Anthony
- 9 Thiago
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 18 M. Sangare
- 2 A. Hickey
- 22 N. Collins
- 14 F. Carvalho
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 7 K. Schade
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 44 J. Schuster
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 2 J. Gomez
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 21 K. Tsimikas
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