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Manchester City – Ipswich Town3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Manchester City
2.28
Total xG
3.16
Ipswich Town
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester City | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +1.38 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.97 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Rayan Cherki on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Josko Gvardiol on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Antoine Semenyo on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 42% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Manchester City score 2.67 goals per match at home in the league, Ipswich Town concede 2.67 per match away
- Form: Manchester City won all 6 league matches this season, Ipswich Town recorded 3 wins and 3 losses in 6 matches
Risks
- Rest days: Manchester City with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Ipswich Town scored 1.67 goals per match away in the league, Manchester City conceded 1.33 per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Manchester City68%
Draw20%
Ipswich Town12%
Double chance
Manchester City or draw88%
Ipswich Town or draw32%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ipswich Town: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Fulham: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Manchester City: scored only after the break in 7 of 12 games
Lineups
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 · Ipswich Town 3-4-2-1
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Guehi
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 47 P. Foden
- 11 J. Doku
- 9 E. Haaland
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 24 J. Greaves
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 25 E. Palacios
- 3 L. Davis
- 38 D. Maeda
- 10 J. Enciso
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Substitutes
- 28 G. Rulli
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 5 E. Anderson
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 10 M. Cherki
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 17 E. Fernández
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
- 23 S. Lukić
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 5 A. Matusiwa
- 4 C. Kipre
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 47 J. Clarke
- 37 K. Scherpen
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