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Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolverhampton Wanderers

05/09/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Wolverhampton Wanderers
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
B&HAWW

Brighton & Hove Albion

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap)
+0.11
Diego Gómez not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.62
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
Ladislav Krejci on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Wolverhampton Wanderers with Yerson Mosquera: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Brighton with a 62% probability
  • Form and Trend: Brighton shows a positive form trend with 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Wolves have a negative trend with 3 losses
  • Offensive Strength vs. Defensive Weakness: Brighton's home strength with 1.42 goals per home game meets Wolves' weak away defense, conceding 3.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers' away weakness: The team concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Squad impact for Brighton: Without Diego Gómez (5G/1A) and Mats Wieffer (2G/3A), 89% of the usual starting XI strength is available
Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion (8th place, 50 points) host Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place, 18 points) at The American Express Community Stadium

Premier League match on May 9, 2026, 3:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Brighton with a probability of 62% and 1.90 expected home goals

Wolverhampton Wanderers, currently at the bottom of the table, face a tough challenge

Form

Brighton & Hove Albion showed a form of WWDWL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) in their last five matches across all competitions

The last game ended in a loss

According to advanced statistics, Brighton's recent form trend is positive

Wolverhampton Wanderers are in weaker form with DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) in their last five matches

The last game was a draw

Wolverhampton Wanderers' recent form trend is negative according to advanced statistics

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Brighton & Hove Albion averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they are stronger with an average of 1.42 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per game

The team kept 9 clean sheets

Wolverhampton Wanderers averages only 0.71 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per match

The Wolves are particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals and scoring only 0.7 goals per away game

They managed to keep a clean sheet in only 4 games this season, with 1 of those away

The history at The American Express Community Stadium shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 60% of the matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, the record is even

Brighton won 1 match, Wolverhampton Wanderers also won 1 match, and 3 games ended in a draw

The goal difference is slightly in favor of Brighton with 5:4 goals

The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Brighton, Danny Welbeck is an important player with 13 season goals and 1 assist, recently contributing 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games with a rising form trend

Jack Hinshelwood contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games, showing stable form, with a total of 3 season goals and 3 assists

Kaoru Mitoma scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances with a rising form trend, totaling 3 season goals and 1 assist

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, Santiago Bueno scored 1 goal in his last 4 games, with a total of 3 season goals and 1 assist and stable form

Adam Armstrong scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, with a total of 1 season goal and 2 assists and stable form

Hugo Bueno provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with stable form, totaling 1 season goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Brighton's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen made 35 appearances this season and kept 9 clean sheets

Wolverhampton Wanderers' goalkeeper Daniel Bentley played 2 games this season and did not keep a single clean sheet

Influences

Brighton & Hove Albion benefits from a home advantage, as they average 1.42 goals scored at home and concede only 0.89 goals per game this season

The American Express Community Stadium records an average of 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of the last 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 60%

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