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AFC Bournemouth – Sunderland2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.58
Total xG
2.66
Sunderland
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.68 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.03 | |
| 20% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Brian Brobbey not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nilson Angulo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 75% of goal output missing (only 30% available) |
Key factors
- Squad: B. Brobbey is absent, having scored 3 of the 6 league goals by Sunderland players this season (50%)
- Form: AFC Bournemouth won 2 of their last 5 matches, Sunderland 1
- Defence: AFC Bournemouth allowed 0.92 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.8 goals per match
Risks
- Squad: AFC Bournemouth without A. Scott, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Schedule: AFC Bournemouth with 3 days since their last match
- Attack: Sunderland generated 2.20 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.0 goal per match
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth48%
Draw28%
Sunderland24%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw76%
Sunderland or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Enzo Le Fée: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- AFC Bournemouth: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-1-4-1 · Sunderland 4-2-3-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 37 R. Rocha
- 10 R. Christie
- 4 L. Cook
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 32 T. Hume
- 11 C. Rigg
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 57 T. Tuterov
Substitutes
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 24 J. Sánchez Velasco
- 18 B. Diakité
- 21 A. Adli
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 7 D. Brooks
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 19 M. Diarra
- 7 C. Talbi
- 18 W. Isidor
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
- 50 J. Angulo Caiced
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