Match report →
Newcastle United – Aston Villa0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newcastle United
1.47
Total xG
2.77
Aston Villa
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| John McGinn on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Newcastle average 2 goals per game at home in the league, Aston Villa concede 2 per game away
- Table: Newcastle are 11th in the league with 8 points from 6 games, Aston Villa 16th with 5 points in 6 games
Risks
- Rest days: Aston Villa with 3 days since their last match
- Shots: Aston Villa averaged 7.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Newcastle 4 per game
All probabilities
Result
Newcastle United40%
Draw28%
Aston Villa32%
Double chance
Newcastle United or draw68%
Aston Villa or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aston Villa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Newcastle United: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 67 L. Miley
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 7 J. Apolinário de Lira
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 9 Y. Wissa
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 5 T. Mings
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 8 B. Kamara
- 35 Gomes
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 10 E. Buendía
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 10 W. Osula
- 23 J. Murphy
- 33 D. Burn
- 37 A. Dedić
- 14 S. Steur
- 27 L. Goretzka
- 39 B. Djomeni Madjo
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 7 J. McGinn
- 6 R. Barkley
- 4 T. Harwood-Bellis
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