Match report →
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nottingham Forest
1.02
Total xG
2.70
Arsenal
1.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Morgan Gibbs-White on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Arsenal with 4 wins from its last 5 games, Nottingham Forest with 1
- Table: Arsenal is 2nd in the league after 6 games with 15 points, Nottingham Forest 17th with 5 points
- Home/Away: Nottingham Forest scored 0 goals in 3 league home games this season, Arsenal concedes 1.0 per away game
Risks
- Away: Arsenal scored 1.0 goal per game away in the league this season, compared to 2.33 goals per game at home
- xG: Nottingham Forest generated 1.88 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.0 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Nottingham Forest22%
Draw27%
Arsenal51%
Double chance
Nottingham Forest or draw49%
Arsenal or draw78%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Nottingham Forest: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Arsenal with Bukayo Saka starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (20/6 games, last 30)
- Arsenal: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 2 O. Diomande
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 21 X. Schlager
- 3 N. Williams
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 19 L. Delap
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 10 E. Eze
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 25 L. Netz
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 31 N. Milenković
- 9 C. Wood
- 30 I. Meslier
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 12 J. Timber
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
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