Match report →
Fulham – Hull City1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fulham
1.97
Total xG
2.81
Hull City
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fulham | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap) | −0.62 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- xG: Fulham generated 1.64 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
- Possession: Fulham averages 52.2% possession in recent matches, Hull City 33.6% possession
- Attack: Fulham scores 1.67 goals per match at home in the league, Hull City scores 1.33 goals per match away
Risks
- Table: Hull City is 8th in the league with 9 points, Fulham is 20th with 2 points
- Form: Fulham is winless in 6 league matches this season, Hull City lost 1 of 6 matches
All probabilities
Result
Fulham62%
Draw24%
Hull City14%
Double chance
Fulham or draw86%
Hull City or draw38%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Hull City: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Fulham: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Fulham 4-2-3-1 · Hull City 5-4-1
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 22 L. Herrington
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 25 M. Crooks
- 27 R. Slater
- 7 S. Thomas
- 9 O. McBurnie
Substitutes
- 10 T. Cairney
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 2 K. Tete
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
- 47 R. Vaz
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 12 D. Phillips
- 3 R. Giles
- 5 H. Morita
- 32 N. Mendy
- 17 P. McNair
- 21 E. Stroud
- 14 J. Hjertø-Dahl
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