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Tottenham Hotspur – Coventry City3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
1.80
Total xG
2.81
Coventry City
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Tottenham Hotspur with 58.6% possession in recent matches, Coventry City with 38.6%
- xG: Tottenham Hotspur average 1.25 xG per match over the last 5 matches, Coventry City allow 1.73 xG per match
- Away: Coventry City score 0.33 goals per match away in the league this season and concede 1.33 per match
Risks
- Form: Tottenham Hotspur are winless in their last 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses, Coventry City with 2 wins
- Table: Tottenham Hotspur sit 20th in the league this season with 3 points, Coventry City are 16th with 6 points
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur54%
Draw26%
Coventry City20%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw80%
Coventry City or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.80 : 1.02, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coventry City: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Newcastle United: 2 goals (81', 86')
- Coventry City: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Tottenham Hotspur: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aston Villa: 2 goals (86', 90+8')
- Tottenham Hotspur: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 3-1-4-2 · Coventry City 4-2-3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 O. Adarabioyo
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 16 S. Tonali
- 20 M. Kudus
- 14 A. Gray
- 10 J. Maddison
- 3 A. Robertson
- 19 D. Solanke
- 22 O. Marmoush
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 6 M. Grimes
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 49 S. Cherif
Substitutes
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 17 S. Moreira de Oliveira
- 33 B. Davies
- 13 I. Udogie
- 21 D. Kulusevski
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 11 M. Tel
- 52 C. Olusesi
- 68 L. Williams-Barnett
- 25 D. Bentley
- 16 O. Frank
- 14 T. Awoniyi
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 9 E. Simms
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 20 K. Kessler
- 38 G. Hamer
- 12 S. Mfuni
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