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Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.07
Total xG
3.06
Crystal Palace
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +1.39 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.94 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Malick Yalcouyé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Brighton scores 2.67 goals per match at home in the league this season, Crystal Palace concedes 1.33 per match away
- Form: Brighton with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace with 2 wins in 5 matches
- Table: Brighton occupies 3rd place in the league with 13 points from 6 matches, Crystal Palace 13th with 7 points from 6 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Crystal Palace won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Brighton with 1 draw
- Defense: Brighton allowed 1.22 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded only 0.2 goals per match
- Rest period: Brighton with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Brighton & Hove Albion61%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace16%
Double chance
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw84%
Crystal Palace or draw39%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/9 games, last 30)
- Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 6 J. Canvot
- 26 C. Richards
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 23 Q. Timber
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Substitutes
- 23 J. Steele
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
- 10 G. Rutter
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 20 J. da Costa
- 30 M. Svoboda
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 11 D. McNeil
- 7 I. Sarr
- 19 W. Hughes
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 31 R. Matthews
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 14 J. Mateta
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
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