Match report →
Crystal Palace – Newcastle United0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
1.56
Total xG
3.04
Newcastle United
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Yoane Wissa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Crystal Palace concede 2.67 goals per game in 3 league home games, Newcastle 2.67 in 3 away games
- Attack: Crystal Palace score 1.29 goals per game in the league this season, Newcastle score 1.43 per game
- Table: Crystal Palace rank 16th with 7 points after 7 games, Newcastle are 14th with 8 points
Risks
- Rest days: Crystal Palace with 3 days since their last match
- Head-to-head: Newcastle won 2 of the 4 meetings since 2024, Crystal Palace won 1
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace38%
Draw27%
Newcastle United35%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw65%
Newcastle United or draw62%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.48, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Crystal Palace: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
- Newcastle United: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 · Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 6 J. Canvot
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 18 D. Kamada
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 14 J. Mateta
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 5 F. Schär
- 33 D. Burn
- 3 L. Hall
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 7 J. Apolinário de Lira
- 23 J. Murphy
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 10 W. Osula
Substitutes
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 29 E. Guessand
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 7 I. Sarr
- 19 W. Hughes
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 31 R. Matthews
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 19 A. Elanga
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 1 N. Pope
- 4 S. Botman
- 67 L. Miley
- 14 S. Steur
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