Match report →
Sunderland – Leeds United0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
1.34
Total xG
2.57
Leeds United
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 25% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: Sunderland generated 1.83 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1 goal per match
- Shots: Sunderland averaged 15.4 shots per match in the last 5 matches, Leeds United 12.2 per match
Risks
- Table: Leeds United is 8th in the league this season, Sunderland is 20th
- Rest days: Sunderland with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland38%
Draw30%
Leeds United32%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw68%
Leeds United or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.22, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Ao Tanaka starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (17/8 games, last 30)
- Sunderland with Brian Brobbey starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/7 games, last 30)
- Leeds United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Enzo Le Fée: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Leeds United: 36% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United 3-4-2-1
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 32 T. Hume
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 11 C. Rigg
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 15 J. Bijol
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 10 H. Wilson
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitutes
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 19 M. Diarra
- 7 C. Talbi
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 57 T. Tuterov
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
- 50 J. Angulo Caiced
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 18 A. Stach
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 19 N. Okafor
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 50 A. Cresswell
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