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Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
1.65
Total xG
2.98
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (3.5 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Brighton averages 3.33 goals per game away in the league this season, while Liverpool concedes 1.67 per game at home
- Form: Liverpool won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 2.6 goals per match
Risks
- Table: Brighton is 3rd in the league with 16 points, while Liverpool is 5th with 12 points
- Home: Liverpool scored 0.67 goals per match at home in the league this season across 3 matches
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool43%
Draw27%
Brighton & Hove Albion30%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw70%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.33, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (12/9 games, last 30)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Liverpool: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 29 B. Barcola
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 9 A. Isak
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Substitutes
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 2 J. Gomez
- 14 F. Chiesa
- 53 J. McConnell
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 23 J. Steele
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
- 10 G. Rutter
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
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