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Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Manchester United
1.57
Total xG
2.87
AFC Bournemouth
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +0.48 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.29 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Bruno Fernandes on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheus Cunha on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Manchester United average 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Bournemouth concede 3 away per game
- xG: Manchester United average 1.71 xG per game in 7 league matches this season, scoring 1.43 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Manchester United are winless in their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 losses), while Bournemouth won 3
- Head-to-head: AFC Bournemouth are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings (1 win, 3 draws)
All probabilities
Result
Manchester United42%
Draw28%
AFC Bournemouth30%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw70%
AFC Bournemouth or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 1.30, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester United: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Manchester United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 15 L. Yoro
- 5 H. Maguire
- 26 A. Heaven
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 16 A. Traoré
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 7 M. Mount
- 19 B. Mbeumo
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 4 L. Cook
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
- 12 K. Darlow
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 6 L. Martínez
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 31 S. Lacey
- 39 T. Fletcher
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 22 E. Kroupi
- 18 B. Diakité
- 21 A. Adli
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 7 D. Brooks
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
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