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Premier League

Fulham - AFC Bournemouth

05/09/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Fulham
2.3
Total xG
3.9
AFC Bournemouth
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FULAB

Fulham

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Alex Iwobi not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

AFC Bournemouth

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.53
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Álex Jiménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham with Harry Wilson: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    AFC Bournemouth with Tyler Adams: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    AFC Bournemouth: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

22%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

75%

Under 2.5

25%

Over 3.5

55%

Under 3.5

45%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

73%

No

27%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with a 52% probability
  • Form Trend: AFC Bournemouth shows a positive trend, averaging 2.2 goals recently compared to 1.9 season average
  • Goal-filled match: High probability of 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Fulham's offense: Fulham's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.0 goals, compared to the season average of 1.4
Overview

Fulham (11th place, 48 points) hosts AFC Bournemouth (6th place, 52 points) at Craven Cottage. The Premier League match is on May 9, 2026, 3:00 PM. AFC Bournemouth is in the upper half of the table, while Fulham is in mid-table.

Form

Fulham shows mixed form with WLDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last five matches

Their last result was a loss

AFC Bournemouth is in good shape with DWWDW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches

Their last result was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fulham averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game this season

Fulham kept 8 clean sheets

In home games, Fulham averages 1.27 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded per match

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.49 goals conceded per game this season

AFC Bournemouth kept 10 clean sheets

In away games, AFC Bournemouth averages 1.59 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per match

Craven Cottage sees an average of 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, AFC Bournemouth has the upper hand with 3 wins

Fulham secured 1 win, and 1 encounter ended in a draw

AFC Bournemouth scored a total of 10 goals, while Fulham recorded 6 goals

The last clash on October 3, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth has been dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Fulham, Harry Wilson (10 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.14 rating), Samuel Chukwueze (3 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.88 rating), and Emile Smith Rowe (3 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.74 rating) are important players

Harry Wilson shows stable form, while Samuel Chukwueze and Emile Smith Rowe show a slightly declining form

Not nominated: Alex Iwobi (4G/3A)

For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (12 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.87 rating), Marcus Tavernier (6 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.92 rating), and Rayan (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating) are prominent

Eli Kroupi, Marcus Tavernier, and Rayan all show stable form

Not nominated: Álex Jiménez (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Fulham's goalkeeper, Bernd Leno, made 35 seasonal appearances and contributed to 8 clean sheets

Bernd Leno's form is rising

AFC Bournemouth's goalkeeper, Djordje Petrovic, made 35 seasonal appearances and recorded 10 clean sheets

Djordje Petrovic shows stable form

Influences

Fulham's home strength is evident with an average of 1.27 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded at Craven Cottage

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.59 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per away game

Craven Cottage sees an average of 2.0 goals per game

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