Match report →
Arsenal – Everton2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
1.94
Total xG
2.68
Everton
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.91 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Bukayo Saka not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Riccardo Calafiori on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kai Havertz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Bruno Guimarães on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Arsenal rank 2nd with 6 wins from 7 league games, Everton rank 8th with 2 wins from 7 games
- Home/Away: Arsenal score 2.33 goals per game at home in the league, Everton 1.0 goals per game away
- Head-to-head: Arsenal won 2 of the last 4 meetings since 2024, Everton won none (2 draws)
Risks
- Rest days: Arsenal with 3 days since their last match
- Defense: Arsenal conceded 1.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, compared to 0.71 in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal65%
Draw23%
Everton12%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw88%
Everton or draw35%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
2:0
From xG 1.94 : 0.74, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Everton: 8 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Everton: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Everton: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
- Everton: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 41 D. Rice
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 20 C. Madueke
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 34 M. Röhl
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 22 B. Johnson
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 12 J. Timber
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 29 K. Havertz
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 10 J. Grealish
- 31 T. King
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 5 M. Keane
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 30 H. Hackney
- 23 C. Nørgaard
- 58 B. Graham
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