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Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chelsea
1.49
Total xG
2.74
Tottenham Hotspur
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| João Pedro on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Dominic Solanke on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Chelsea average 3.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Tottenham 0.33 away per game
- Table: Chelsea are 4th in the league with 13 points from 7 games, Tottenham are 16th with 6 points in 7 games
- Form: Chelsea have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, Tottenham have 1 win in 7 games
Risks
- Squad: Chelsea without D. Martínez, who started in 5 of the last 5 games
- xG: Chelsea generated 0.99 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Chelsea41%
Draw29%
Tottenham Hotspur31%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw69%
Tottenham Hotspur or draw59%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.26, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tottenham Hotspur: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aston Villa: 2 goals (86', 90+8')
- Chelsea: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chelsea: 32% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 22)
- Tottenham Hotspur: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Chelsea: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Chelsea 3-4-2-1 · Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1
Chelsea
- 39 M. Penders
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 6 L. Colwill
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 21 J. Hato
- 10 C. Palmer
- 23 G. Quenda
- 17 M. Rogers
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 14 A. Gray
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 16 S. Tonali
- 20 M. Kudus
- 10 J. Maddison
- 11 M. Tel
- 22 O. Marmoush
Substitutes
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 28 T. Sharman-Lowe
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
- 3 W. Fofana
- 45 R. Lavia
- 27 M. Gusto
- 2 M. Palestra
- 32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 33 B. Davies
- 21 D. Kulusevski
- 19 D. Solanke
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 52 C. Olusesi
- 68 L. Williams-Barnett
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