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Hull City – Brentford1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Hull City
0.99
Total xG
2.77
Brentford
1.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hull City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Yegor Yarmolyuk not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitaly Janelt not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jaidon Anthony on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Brentford scored 1.86 goals per game in the league this season, Hull City 1.14 goals per game
- Form: Hull City remained winless in their last 5 games (3 draws, 2 losses), Brentford recorded 1 win
- Possession: Brentford averaged 44% possession in their last 5 games, Hull City 32%
Risks
- Absences: V. Janelt and Y. Yarmoliuk are missing, they scored 3 of the 13 league goals for Brentford players this season (23%)
- Home/Away: Hull City conceded 0.67 goals per game at home in the league in 3 games, Brentford 1.67 away in 3 games
All probabilities
Result
Hull City19%
Draw26%
Brentford55%
Double chance
Hull City or draw45%
Brentford or draw81%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.99 : 1.78, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brentford: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Hull City: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (11 points lost)
- Brentford: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Hull City 5-4-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 22 L. Herrington
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 27 R. Slater
- 21 E. Stroud
- 9 O. McBurnie
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 18 M. Sangare
- 2 A. Hickey
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 8 M. Jensen
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Substitutes
- 47 R. Vaz
- 50 M. Cho
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 25 M. Crooks
- 12 D. Phillips
- 7 S. Thomas
- 5 H. Morita
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 17 P. McNair
- 39 G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
- 22 N. Collins
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 19 J. Anthony
- 44 J. Schuster
- 48 B. Fredrick
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