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Aston Villa – Manchester City2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Aston Villa
1.07
Total xG
2.99
Manchester City
1.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.69 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.40 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Antoine Semenyo not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Manchester City is 1st in the league with 21 points in 7 games, Aston Villa is 12th with 8 points in 7 games
- Home/Away: Manchester City scored 2.67 goals per game away in the league, Aston Villa conceded 1.67 per game at home
- Possession: Manchester City averaged 61.6% possession in recent games, Aston Villa 47.6% possession
Risks
- Head-to-head: Aston Villa won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, Manchester City won 1 game
- Form: Aston Villa recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Aston Villa20%
Draw25%
Manchester City56%
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw44%
Manchester City or draw80%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.08 : 1.91, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
9%
1:3
6%
0:3
6%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Aston Villa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (22/5 games, last 30)
- Aston Villa: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 24)
Lineups
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 35 Gomes
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 7 J. McGinn
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 11 N. Jackson
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 6 M. Guehi
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 5 E. Anderson
- 17 E. Fernández
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 10 M. Cherki
- 11 J. Doku
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 27 L. Goretzka
- 39 B. Djomeni Madjo
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 10 E. Buendía
- 6 R. Barkley
- 53 G. Hemmings
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 47 P. Foden
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 27 M. Nunes
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 56 R. McAidoo
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