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Coventry City – Fulham0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coventry City
1.33
Total xG
2.74
Fulham
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Coventry City are 18th in the league with 6 points from 7 games, Fulham are 19th with 5 points from 7 games
- Form: Coventry City have 2 wins from 7 league games this season, Fulham have 1 win from 7 games
Risks
- xG: Fulham generated 1.84 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.0 goals per game
- Shots: Fulham averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches, Coventry City 3.8 per game
All probabilities
Result
Coventry City34%
Draw29%
Fulham38%
Double chance
Coventry City or draw62%
Fulham or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.33 : 1.42, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coventry City: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Newcastle United: 2 goals (81', 86')
- Coventry City: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- Coventry City with Brandon Thomas-Asante starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (10/8 games, last 30)
Lineups
Coventry City 4-2-3-1 · Fulham 4-2-3-1
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 6 M. Grimes
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 49 S. Cherif
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 19 S. Charles
- 15 H. Larsson
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Substitutes
- 34 Y. Gboho
- 25 D. Bentley
- 16 O. Frank
- 14 T. Awoniyi
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 20 K. Kessler
- 38 G. Hamer
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 10 T. Cairney
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 16 S. Berge
- 5 J. Andersen
- 2 K. Tete
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
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