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Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ipswich Town
1.39
Total xG
2.79
Nottingham Forest
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.40 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap) | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Ipswich recorded 45% possession in the last 5 matches, Nottingham Forest 46.4%
- Shots on target: Ipswich had 4.6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Nottingham Forest 4.0 per match
Risks
- xG: Nottingham Forest recorded 1.60 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.6 goals per match
- Table: Ipswich is 10th in the league this season with 9 points from 7 matches, Nottingham Forest is 19th with 5 points from 7 matches
- Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest won 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings, Ipswich Town won none with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Ipswich Town35%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest36%
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw64%
Nottingham Forest or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.39 : 1.41, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ipswich Town: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Fulham: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Nottingham Forest: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Ipswich Town: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Ipswich Town: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Nottingham Forest: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Nottingham Forest: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 6 I. Diop
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 3 L. Davis
- 25 E. Palacios
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 21 X. Schlager
- 3 N. Williams
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 19 L. Delap
Substitutes
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 5 A. Matusiwa
- 47 J. Clarke
- 24 J. Greaves
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 38 D. Maeda
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 9 C. Wood
- 2 O. Diomande
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