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Brentford – Nottingham Forest2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brentford
1.60
Total xG
2.95
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brentford | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | +1.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.95 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.60 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap) | −0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Yegor Yarmolyuk not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jaidon Anthony on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Brentford is 6th in the league after 8 games, Nottingham Forest is 18th
- Home/Away: Brentford scores 2 goals per game at home in the league, Nottingham Forest concedes 1.75 per game away
- Form: Brentford has 1 loss in its last 5 games, Nottingham Forest has 3 losses in 5 games
Risks
- Squad: Brentford without Y. Yarmoliuk, who started in 4 of the last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest won 3 of the 4 meetings against Brentford
- xG: Nottingham Forest generated 1.98 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Brentford42%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
Double chance
Brentford or draw69%
Nottingham Forest or draw58%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.34, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nottingham Forest: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (11 points lost)
- Nottingham Forest: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Brentford: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Brentford 4-3-3 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 18 M. Sangare
- 27 V. Janelt
- 8 M. Jensen
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 9 Thiago
- 7 K. Schade
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 21 X. Schlager
- 3 N. Williams
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 19 L. Delap
Substitutes
- 39 G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
- 2 A. Hickey
- 22 N. Collins
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 19 J. Anthony
- 44 J. Schuster
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 2 O. Diomande
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