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Coventry City – Sunderland3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coventry City
1.42
Total xG
2.68
Sunderland
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coventry City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.53 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Coventry City won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Sunderland are winless in their last 5
- Away: Sunderland have conceded 2.5 goals per match in 4 away league games this season
Risks
- Shots: Sunderland averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Coventry City 3.6 per match
- xG: Sunderland generated 1.44 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Coventry City39%
Draw29%
Sunderland32%
Double chance
Coventry City or draw68%
Sunderland or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.42 : 1.26, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coventry City: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Newcastle United: 2 goals (81', 86')
- Sunderland with Brian Brobbey starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/7 games, last 30)
- Coventry City: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- Enzo Le Fée: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Coventry City 4-2-3-1 · Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 34 Y. Gboho
- 14 T. Awoniyi
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 32 T. Hume
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 11 C. Rigg
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Substitutes
- 49 S. Cherif
- 25 D. Bentley
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 9 E. Simms
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 20 K. Kessler
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 6 M. Grimes
- 38 G. Hamer
- 6 D. Methalie
- 12 T. Meunier
- 39 M. Fofana
- 7 C. Talbi
- 18 W. Isidor
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 37 D. Bi
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
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