Match report →
Aston Villa – Fulham1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Aston Villa
1.57
Total xG
2.67
Fulham
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aston Villa | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Aston Villa has 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Fulham has 2 wins
- Head-to-head: Aston Villa won 3 of the 4 meetings between the teams, Fulham won 1
- Shots: Aston Villa averaged 6.6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Fulham 4.8 per match
Risks
- Defense: Fulham conceded 0.75 goals per match away in the league this season, Aston Villa 1.5 per match at home
- Possession: Fulham had 55.8% possession per match in their last 5 matches, Aston Villa 47.6% per match
All probabilities
Result
Aston Villa47%
Draw28%
Fulham25%
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw75%
Fulham or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 1.10, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aston Villa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · Fulham 4-2-3-1
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 27 L. Goretzka
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 7 J. McGinn
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 11 N. Jackson
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Substitutes
- 39 B. Djomeni Madjo
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 35 Gomes
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 10 E. Buendía
- 6 R. Barkley
- 4 T. Harwood-Bellis
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 10 T. Cairney
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 2 K. Tete
- 15 H. Larsson
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
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