Match report →
Liverpool – Arsenal0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
1.34
Total xG
2.77
Arsenal
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.73x league average) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Ben White on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bukayo Saka not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Liverpool with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Arsenal with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Liverpool score 1 goal per game at home in the league, Arsenal 1 goal per game away
Risks
- Table: Arsenal are 2nd in the league with 21 points from 8 matches, Liverpool 5th with 15 points from 8 matches
- Squad: B. Saka is missing, having scored 3 of the 13 league goals for Arsenal players this season (23%)
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool34%
Draw29%
Arsenal38%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw62%
Arsenal or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.42, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Arsenal: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 20)
- Arsenal: 70% of all goals in the second half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
- Liverpool: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 20 C. Madueke
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 2 J. Gomez
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 4 B. White
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
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