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Premier League

Crystal Palace - Everton

05/10/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Crystal Palace
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Everton
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CPEVE

Crystal Palace

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Jean-Philippe Mateta on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Yéremy Pino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
Idrissa Gueye not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Everton: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Crystal Palace with Brennan Johnson: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 7.6 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Everton with Tim Iroegbunam: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

26%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Crystal Palace a 50% chance of winning
  • Everton's Offensive Strength: Everton is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), indicating a positive trend
  • Historical Dominance: Everton won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Crystal Palace
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: Crystal Palace had only 3 days since their last match
  • Poor Home H2H Record: Crystal Palace has not won any of the last 5 direct encounters against Everton
Overview

Crystal Palace (15th place, 43 points) hosts Everton (10th place, 48 points) at Selhurst Park. The Premier League match takes place on May 10, 2026, 3:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 50% probability

Form

Crystal Palace's form across all competitions is DLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last match was a 2-1 win against Shakhtar Donetsk

Everton shows a form of WDLLD

This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from their last five games

The last match ended in a 3-3 draw against Manchester City

Statistics

Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.06 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals

At home, they score 1.07 goals and concede 1.27 goals per home game

Everton scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.26 goals per game

Away from home, Everton scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per away game

Crystal Palace kept 12 clean sheets, Everton 11 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 17 games for Crystal Palace and 17 games for Everton

At Selhurst Park, the last 5 matches averaged 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games at Selhurst Park

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct encounters, Crystal Palace had 0 home wins and Everton had 4 away wins

One match ended in a draw

Everton scored 8 goals, while Crystal Palace scored 4 goals

The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended with a 1-2 away win for Everton

Everton has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Crystal Palace, Ismaïla Sarr with 7 goals and 1 assist, and Adam Wharton with 5 assists are important attacking players

Defender Maxence Lacroix shows consistency with a stable form and an average rating of 6.96 in the last 5 games

Everton's Beto, with 8 goals and 1 assist and a strongly rising form (4 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games), is a decisive attacker

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has scored 8 goals and 4 assists, showing 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

James Garner, with 7 assists and a season average rating of 7.32, is a key playmaker for Everton

Not nominated for Crystal Palace are Jean-Philippe Mateta (10G/0A) and Yéremy Pino (2G/1A)

Not nominated for Everton is Idrissa Gueye (2G/3A)

Goalkeepers

Crystal Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson made 33 appearances and kept 12 clean sheets

Everton's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford played in 35 games and achieved 11 clean sheets

Influences

Crystal Palace has scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.27 goals in 15 home games at Selhurst Park

Everton has scored an average of 1.27 goals and conceded 1.33 goals in 15 away games

Selhurst Park averaged 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

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